Sustainable development of the Esil River Basin: an intersectoral approach and scenario analysis

Abstract

The Esil River Basin, located in northern and central Kazakhstan is a key industrial-agricultural region where agriculture dominates. The basin is characterized by high variability in annual runoff and uneven intra-annual water distribution, making water a critical factor for sustainable development. The region is facing some challenges that could potentially jeopardize its socio-economic and environmental stability, including increasing water scarcity, pollution, inefficient water management, and a growing demand, particularly from the capital city of Astana. This study presents the first integrated scenario analysis for the basin, combining inter-basin water transfer from the Irtysh River, the development of the Buzuluk Reservoir, the expansion of irrigated agriculture for high-value durum wheat, and small-scale hydropower generation. These measures are framed within an eco-engineering approach to enhance the region’s sustainability and resilience. Findings indicate that transferring up to 1.5 km3 of water annually from the Irtysh River, supported by improved storage and renewable energy generation, could significantly strengthen water, food, and energy security while contributing to Kazakhstan’s decarbonization goals. The proposed interventions demonstrate the practical application of the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and eco-engineering principles, providing policymakers with evidence-based strategies to enhance resilience against environmental and economic challenges. Future research should incorporate environmental impact assessments, socio-economic feasibility studies, and participatory approaches to ensure the effective and sustainable implementation of these strategies.