Modelling of water balance elements in the Sarysu River basin based on hydrological and climatic observation data
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32523/2616-6771-2025-150-1-129-151Keywords:
water balance equation, linear-correlation equation, river runoff, precipitation, regression coefficient, evapotranspiration, soil moisture reservesAbstract
To analyse and assess water resources in the runoff formation zone of the Sarysu River basin, data on average annual water discharge of the rivers Zhaman-Sarysu, Zhaksy-Sarysu, Atasu, Kara-Kengir, Zhylandy, Zhezdy, and Tokrau were used, as well as information on annual precipitation recorded at meteorological stations Aksu-Ayuly, Agadyr, Aktogay and Ulytau, relatively evenly located within the low mountains of the Kazakh shallow zone, for the period of observations from 1940 to 2021. Analysis and assessment on the basis of sufficiently long time series of hydrological river runoff and annual precipitation of the Sarysu River basin using the methods of difference integral curves show the presence of cyclic fluctuations due to the diversity of catchment response to precipitation, which are synchronous in nature, including short-term cycles characteristic of separate phases of rise and fall. Statistically substantiated estimation of parameters of the linear-correlation equation of the river water balance, which characterises the dependence of hydrological runoff on precipitation falling in the catchment of the Sarysu River basin, serves as a scientific basis for the development of mathematical models of water balance elements. These models include potential-possible layer of river runoff, soil moisture reserves by evaporation, evaporation of atmospheric precipitation in the process of water formation, total evaporation and flood runoff based on mathematical and physical characteristics of the regression coefficient.
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