Моделирование элементов водного баланса бассейна реки Сарысу на основе данных гидрологических и климатических наблюдений
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32523/2616-6771-2025-150-1-129-151Ключевые слова:
уравнение водного баланса, линейно-корреляционное уравнение, речной сток, атмосферные осадки, коэффициент регрессии, суммарное испарение, влагозапасы почвенного покроваАннотация
Для анализа и оценки водных ресурсов в зоне формирования стока бассейна реки Сарысу использованы данные о среднегодовых расходах воды рек Жаман-Сарысу, Жаксы-Сарысу, Атасу, Кара-Кенгир, Жыланды, Жезды, Токрау, а также информация о годовых осадках, зарегистрированных на метеорологических станциях Аксу-Аюлы, Агадыр, Актогай и Улытау, относительно равномерно расположенных в пределах низкогорья Казахского мелкосопочника, за период наблюдений с 1940 по 2021 годы. Анализ и оценка на основе достаточно длительных временных рядов гидрологического стока рек и годовых атмосферных осадков бассейна реки Сарысу с использованием методов разностных интегральных кривых показывают наличие циклических колебаний, обусловленных многообразием реакции водосборов на выпадающие осадки, которые носят синхронный характер, включая кратковременные циклы, характерные для отдельных фаз подъема и спада. Статистически обоснованная оценка параметров линейно-корреляционного уравнения водного баланса рек, характеризирующего зависимость гидрологического стока от атмосферных осадков, выпадающих на водосборе бассейна реки Сарысу, служит научной основой для разработки математических моделей элементов водного баланса. Эти модели включают потенциально-возможный слой речного стока, влагозапасы почвенного покрова по испарению, испарение атмосферных осадков в процессе водообразования, суммарное испарение и паводковый сток, основанные на математических и физических характеристиках коэффициента регрессии.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Zh. Mustafayev, G. Adilbektegi, K. Mustafayev, K. Abdeshev, G. Saspugayeva, N. Tursynbayev (Author)
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